A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
